We don’t know how long we can keep transgressing these key boundaries before combined pressures lead to irreversible change and harm.
Prof. Johan Rockström, co-author and Director of the Potsdam Institude for Climate Impact Research
Last week, an updated publication on the metrics and factors which contribute to planetary resilience and how the operating space for humanity is changing was released. In the publication, Richardson et al (2023) meticulously quantified and mapped all nine planetary boundaries, revealing that we have exceeded six of them.
Azote for Stockholm Resilience Centre, based on analysis in Richardson et al 2023
We can think of Earth as a human body, and the planetary boundaries as blood pressure. Over 120/80 does not indicate a certain heart attack but it does raise the risk and, therefore, we work to reduce blood pressure. The boundary for ozone depletion was exceeded in the 1990s but – thanks to global initiatives, catalyzed by the Montreal Protocol, this boundary is no longer transgressed. Lead author, Katherine Richardson, professor in biological oceanography and leader of the Sustainability Science Centre at the University of Copenhagen
The article disentangles the complexity of freshwater change, and takes on the task of explaining the role of novel entities (synthetic chemicals, microplastics, endocrine disrupters, and organic pollutants). Even though the planetary boundaries framework does not encompass human or ecosystem health but rather focuses on Earth system stability and resilience, the sheer volume of untested chemicals which are produced and released places us significantly beyond the novel entity boundary. The article also made noteworthy advancements in using primary production as a control variable, offering enhanced insights into biosphere integrity and emphasizing the profound interconnectedness of Earth's systems.
<aside> 📌 A few of the major points in the paper:
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The contemporary era has placed an unprecedented burden on the Earth's interconnected systems and that collective pressure is manifesting in ways that are deeply concerning for the stability of our planet. One of the most worrying aspects is the precarious state of the biosphere-related planetary boundary processes which serve as the Earth's natural defense mechanisms against disturbances. The paper shows that all of these are either at or near high-risk levels of transgression. Moreover, regional climate tipping points, which play a pivotal role in maintaining global equilibrium, are showing signs of being crossed, diminishing the Earth's resilience just when it's needed most. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated. To address these challenges, we must acknowledge the intricate interplay among all components of Earth's systems, moving beyond a sole focus on climate and considering the intricate biosphere-geosphere interactions within. This holistic approach is vital to safeguarding the planet's stability and working towards a sustainable future.
You can read the open access article in Science Advances by clicking the link below:
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